Tax Obligation Estimator

Estimate your total federal tax for the year, subtract what you've already paid in, and see whether you'll owe a balance or get a refund.

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Marcus had his best year freelancing yet. His design business cleared $84,000 in net profit, up from $52,000 the year before. He felt like he was finally getting ahead. Then he opened his tax software in April and saw the number he owed: $19,300. He had set aside $6,000. The gap was real money he no longer had.

Here's what the software didn't warn him about in real time, and what most people learn the hard way. A self-employed worker owes two separate taxes on the same profit. The first is income tax, calculated on your taxable income after the standard deduction. The second is self-employment tax, which covers Social Security and Medicare. In 2026, self-employment tax runs 15.3% (12.4% for Social Security plus 2.9% for Medicare) on 92.35% of your net earnings, with the Social Security portion applying up to a wage base of $184,500.

For Marcus, the self-employment tax alone on $84,000 of profit came to roughly $11,900 before any income tax was added. A W-2 employee never sees this number directly, because their employer quietly pays half and withholds the rest from every paycheck. When you work for yourself, you cover the whole thing, and nobody withholds a cent unless you arrange it.

Then comes the income tax. On top of that $11,900, Marcus owed federal income tax on his taxable income after the standard deduction, which pushed his total well past what he'd guessed. He also lost the cushion a salaried worker takes for granted: a steady paycheck with taxes already removed. His profit landed in his business account looking like spendable cash, so he spent it. The tax bill was always coming; it just stayed invisible until the return was filed.

The fix he never set up was simple. Had he paid the IRS in four chunks during the year, the way an employer would have withheld it, April would have been a non-event. Instead he treated tax as a year-end problem, and a year-end problem on income you've already spent is the worst kind.

That is the trap that catches under-withheld workers too. You take a second job, sell stock, or pick up contract income on the side, and no tax comes out of it. Your day-job withholding was calibrated for your day-job salary, not the extra $15,000 you earned on top. The shortfall doesn't show up until you file, and by then the year is over and the money is spent.

This tool exists to move that reveal from April to right now. You enter your expected income, the tax you've already paid through withholding and any estimated payments, and your credits. It returns an estimate of your total tax for the year and tells you whether you're on track for a balance due or a refund, while you still have months to adjust.

Owing a balance at filing time isn't the only cost. The IRS expects you to pay tax as you earn it, and if you wait until April, you can be charged an underpayment penalty on top of the tax itself. The penalty is essentially interest on the money you should have paid earlier in the year.

There is a clean way to avoid it, called the safe harbor rule. You're protected from the underpayment penalty if you pay, through withholding and estimated payments combined, at least one of two amounts. The first is 90% of your current-year tax. The second is 100% of last year's tax, which rises to 110% if your prior-year adjusted gross income was over $150,000 ($75,000 if married filing separately). Meet either threshold and any remaining balance can wait until April without a penalty.

The prior-year figure is usually the easier target, because you already know it. If your 2025 tax was $14,000 and your AGI was under $150,000, then paying in $14,000 across 2026 keeps you penalty-free even if this year's income jumps.

If you're self-employed or under-withheld, you typically meet these thresholds by sending quarterly estimated payments using Form 1040-ES. The IRS expects them once you'll owe $1,000 or more for the year. The 2026 due dates are April 15, June 15, September 15, and January 15, 2027. A common rhythm is to take your estimated annual tax, divide by four, and pay that each quarter.

Note that these payments don't reduce the income tax itself; they just spread it across the year so you don't face the full balance at once. If you also draw a W-2 salary, there's a second lever: raising the withholding on that paycheck. Because withholding is treated as paid evenly across the year regardless of when it actually came out, bumping it up late in the year can cover a shortfall that a fourth-quarter estimated payment alone would not.

To use this tool, enter your expected income, your already-paid tax, and your credits, then read the result. A projected balance due tells you how much to set aside or whether to raise your estimated payments. A projected refund means you're paying in more than you owe and could keep more of each paycheck. Either way, you're working from a number instead of a guess.

This calculator provides estimates based on the information you enter. For advice tailored to your situation, consult a qualified tax professional.

Frequently Asked Questions

Common questions about the Tax Obligation Estimator

Self-employment tax in 2026 is 15.3% (12.4% Social Security plus 2.9% Medicare) applied to 92.35% of your net earnings. On $50,000 of net profit, that works out to roughly $7,065. The Social Security portion only applies to earnings up to the $184,500 wage base; the Medicare portion has no cap.

Sources & References

U.S. wage and salary data

Official occupational wage and employment statistics used as salary benchmarks.